🏈 Mr Chirp's Thursday Night Football Preview

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Today we’re looking at tonights Thursday Night Football matchup between the Pats and the Jets. Don’t miss El Grande Chirpo’s first Houdini Lock of the season. Let’s get straight to it.

New York Jets (2-7) vs. New England Patriots (8-2)

Mr Chirp is the biggest fucking Drake Maye stan out there. We covered the Patriots quite heavily in our previous newsletter but in case you forgot, this team is on an absolute heater. 7 wins in a row and heavy favorites tonight, this game at home against the pathetic Jets should be an easy dub.

New England currently has a 2 game lead in the AFC East over the Bills and with the Bills facing a tough test against the Bucs this weekend, a win tonight could spread that lead even further.

I think the Jets will do a better job of containing the firepower of the Pats than people think, but ultimately will continue to shit the bed on offense. Mr Chirp’s prediction is 24-10 Patriots. The Jets come into this one on a 2 game winning streak after starting the season 0-7.

Despite losing Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner at the trade deadline, the defense looked stout against to be fair, a pretty shitty Cleveland Browns offense.

I actually had to double check to make sure I was reading this correctly that quarterback Justin Fields only threw for 54 yards in a win. How is that even possible? He only threw 11 passes on the day completing just 6, all to different receivers. That’s right, no one had more than 1 catch on the day for the Jets.

Regardless of the fact that the Jets scored twice on special teams, once from a 99 yard kickoff return and another from a 74 yard punt return, the defense looked solid. This Jets defense actually matches up pretty well against the Pats which is why I think the under is the play.

Despite ranking 26th in the league in points allowed per game, they’re 6th in opponent completion percentage. They also rank 8th in opponent passing yards per game.

Defensive end Will McDonald also broke out last week with 4 sacks against the Browns. The Pats horrendous O-line allows 3.5 sacks per game, ranking 5th worst in the league.

With one of Maye’s favorite targets in Kayshon Boutte missing another game due to injury, the Pats ability to keep their QB ass up on the grass, and Will McDonald turning into prime JJ Watt the past 2 weeks, I’m expecting some extra clamps in the Jets secondary tonight, leaving the Pats relying heavily on the run game versus the Jets shitty rushing defense.

Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson finally had his breakout last week against the Bucs. With one of the shittiest starting RB’s in football out last week with an injury, the 2nd round back torched the Bucs defense for 147 and 2 TD’s.

The past 3 weeks Hendo has seen his volume increase and is averaging 92 yards per game and over 7.2 yards per carry. His O/U rushing yards is 72.5 tonight on 15.5 carries. He’ll look to build on the momentum he’s been compounding, as the Jets allow 138 rushing yards per game.

The main issue I see with Henderson’s game right now is his reliance on the big play. Now I know what you’re saying, “Mr Chirp why the fuck would we not want 70 yard TD’s??” and you’re right. All I’m saying is that if you remove his 2 long TD’s last week, he averaged less than 2 yards per carry.

I want to see more of TreVeyon breaking 4-8 yard chain-moving runs and displaying top notch vision and patience. The Pats are going to have long 10+ play drives tonight that chew clock.

Overall for the Pats tonight, I’m anticipating a Hendo TD, probably a Terrell Jennings vulture TD, and a Pop Douglass TD too. Why Pop Douglass you ask? Well it’s because I’m going against him in fantasy this week and Mr Chirp has the worst fantasy luck in history. So if you’re feeling extra spicy, take him at +400 to score.

For the Jets tonight, this one is going to be real fucking ugly real quick. Justin Fields has 3 games under 55 passing yards in his last 4 starts. I don’t even know how that is possible.

It definitely doesn’t help that star wideout Garrett Wilson was placed on IR minutes ago, and it definitely also doesn’t help that the Pats defense ranks 1st in the NFL in rushing defense only allowing 79 yards a game.

For a team that struggles to even snap the ball and with wide receivers and tight ends that are mostly just out there doing cardio on the field week in and week out it’s going to be a long night.

The slight glimmer of hope is that New England’s pass defense is actually not very good. They rank 28th in opponent completion percentage giving up 68.58% per game. Fields needs to find his inner child who still holds the high score at the Kennesaw Dave and Busters at this football toss game and dot some receivers.

The Pats defense also is dead last in the league in opponent red zone scoring percentage. They allow TD’s on 73.9% of red zone trips. All I’m saying Justin, is connect on even 1 of your 20 pass attempts for a big chunk play and you have a 3 in 4 chance of scoring a touchdown.

Of course in classic Jets fashion if they do get in the red zone they will probably turn the ball over. Cough cough Breece Hall. Speaking of Breece Hall, his O/U rushing yards is a crazy low 58.5 tonight. Chirp Daddy ain’t bold enough to take either side of that shit because Breece is good as fuck, but the Pats D is too.

What we will hopefully see though is him making plays through the air which is what we’re laying the pipe on tonight. He is probably their best receiving option right now apart from rookie tight end Mason Taylor.

If the Jets were smart they would feed Taylor and Hall more than Joey Chestnut on the 4th of July. With Garrett Wilson’s absence and New England’s secondary being pretty dogshit besides lockdown corner Christian Gonzalez, I would give Taylor at least 8 targets tonight and let him go to work.

For the Jets tonight, I’m expecting about 40 yards of total offense apart from one 50+ yard play in the form of an AD Mitchell bomb or Breece Hall screen pass. Two red zone trips for the Jets, one resulting in a turnover, and one resulting in a Breece Hall TD.

I’m taking TreVeyon Henderson to score, Drake Maye over 155.5 passing yards, and Breece Hall over 15.5 receiving yards. A light TNF 2.75x play thanks to our friends at Betr.

If you want to tail Mr Chirp’s picks sign up and starting making plays with the homies at Betr. Use the code “MRCHIRP” at sign up or use this link above to get a free $10 after signing up (no deposit necessary) + a first deposit match, up to $200 in bonuses! **

We laid it out for ya and this is what is it. 43 points is way too fucking many for this dumpster fire of a game. The Jets will be lucky to score their team implied total 13 points tonight. Mr Chirp gives them 10.

Also, like we said the Jets D matches up pretty well with the Pats and if Hendo can’t be more efficient on the every down carries it could be a lot of 3rd and longs for the Pats.

Enjoy responsibly and we’ll see ya tomorrow with more Houdini locks of the day and some week 11 fantasy football hot takes.

-Mr Chirp

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