🏴‍☠️ Mr Chirp's Week 15 Thursday Night Football Preview and PICKS

What’s good Chirp Fam! What a BEAUTIFUL Thursday afternoon we have today. Hope everyone out there reading is having a wonderful week so far, this month is already flying by. Tonight, we’ve got a divisional matchup in the worst division in football. Who else is excited for this “Prime” NFL product?

Professor Chirpy is going to break down everything you need to know about this one, what picks to make if you’re a degen, and give my overall thoughts on both teams. Strap in and let’s get straight to work. If you’re new here and like what you see, subscribe to never miss a newsletter.

Now, I knew this division was fucking awful this year (like usual), but I didn’t realize just how bad it is all around. The average point differential for the Bucs, Panthers, Falcons, and Saints on the season is a god awful -61.25. Not a single team in this division has a positive point differential this year. The Bucs, tied 1st with the Panthers lead with -26.

This is just a 2 team race right now for the divisional crown with the Bucs and Panthers facing each other twice in the final 4 weeks which will undoubtedly decide who is in and who stays home for the playoffs.

A tale of 2 seasons it has been for the injury plagued Bucs. This team started on an absolute heater winning 5 out of their first 6 games. Baker was looking like an early MVP candidate throwing 12 TD’s to 1 INT, and Emeka Egbuka was emerging as the clear cut Rookie of the Year.

Now, 2 weeks into December with playoff implications on the line, this team has only won 2 more games since that hot start. They’ve lost 4 of their last 5, with the only win coming against a pathetic Arizona Cardinals team. They just lost last week to the last place Saints which adds even more pain to the month and a half they’ve had.

But good news is possibly on the horizon. Stud WR and leader Mike Evans is back from injury and will look to make an immediate impact tonight. With 4 games left to go in the season he just need 860 yards to get ANOTHER 1k yard season. Feed his ass Baker let the big dog go for 215 a game this next month.

The offense has been struggling HEAVY the past 3 games averaging just 15.7 PPG, almost 8 less than their average on the year. They’re also one of the worst red zone TD scoring teams this year, ranked in the bottom 7, but maybe Mike Evans’s big body red zone threat can change that now.

In the last 3 games they’re 29th in yards per game only putting up 257.7, and 30th in yards per play. Their running attack has steadily improved since Bucky Irving returned from injury a couple weeks ago. The real issue is Baker and the passing attack.

In the last 3 games they’re putting up just 125 passing yards per game. In those games Baker averaged just 52.8% completion percentage about 9% less than his yearly average, and 19% less than his 2024 season. I think that Mayfield is still battling his shoulder injury and it’s causing him to play like shit in the back half of the year.

Baker and the Bucs are dead last in the last 3 games in yards per pass attempt at just 4.6. This is a full yard worse than any team in the league for the whole season. Another issue with the Bucs right now is their defense as a whole. Already without two key players in this one, safety Tyreke Smith and linebacker SirVocea Dennis, they’re lucky that Drake London is missing another game tonight.

The Bucs rush defense is not bad allowing just 100 yards per game on the ground which is top 10 in the league. The passing defense on the other hand is putrid. Ranked 27th in yards allowed and very middle of the pack in sacks per game, while Kirk Cousins has been nothing spectacular since taking back over the job for the Falcons, he is a notorious Bucs killer.

While there is a lot of negatives going against the Bucs in this one and in recent weeks, the return of Mike Evans and all-pro offensive lineman Tristan Wirfs will make this week the most healthy their offense has been since week 1.

Man, what a shitstorm of a season it has been for the Falcons thus far. This team started about as hot as they could have rattling off big time wins against the Jayden Daniels led Commanders and Josh Allen led Bills in back to back weeks before losing 7 of their last 8.

This squad has faced one of the toughest schedules in the league going up against the Bills, 49ers, Dolphins, Pats, Colts, and Seahawks in non-divisional games. They also have been without star receiver Drake London for 4 out of 13 games.

This season could be very much salvaged if not for them being 1-5 in 1 score games. But overall, this the Falcons are definitely not worthy of playoff consideration. They’re bottom tier in scoring offense on the season and now have Kirk Cousins back at QB who is looking even worse than he did before they pulled the plug last year.

The one bright spot for the Falcons is again, Bijan Robinson. The third year back is already over 1,600 total yards on the year and will most likely finish over 2k total. What’s been most impressive this year is his ascension into a C-Mac light receiving option for the Falcons.

He’s always impressed in the passing game, but they’re giving him more opportunities than ever and he’s doing more with each catch already over 600 receiving yards this year when his previous season high was his rookie year with 487. He’s averaging 10.8 yards per catch compared to his previous season high of 8.4.

The most annoying thing about Atlanta is their persistence of giving Tyler Allgeier 9+ touches per game. He’s averaging just 3.5 yards per carry and vulturing Bijan in the red zone, pissing off fantasy league managers nationwide. Just give that fucking rock to Bijan inside the 5 coach, we don’t want this bullshit no more.

The Falcons defense has been pretty middle of the pack this year. They’re bottom half in points allowed per game, but actually perform 6 PPG better on the road vs. at home. They’re 12th in red zone TD scoring %, 14th in yards allowed, 12th in yards per play. Their passing defense is top 10, meanwhile their rushing defense is bottom 10.

The biggest bright spot and improvement for this unit has been their ability to get to the fuckin QB this year. The Falcons finally stopped chasing the shiny offensive fire power in the draft this year and sniped Jalon Walker and James Pearce with their first 2 picks. Both players have 11 sacks between em, with Pearce turning into an absolute animal with 5.5 sacks in the last 5 games.

2024 4th round defensive tackle Brandon Dorlus is also tops on the team with 6 this year too. ATL ranks 3rd in the league with 3.3 sacks per game, up from their 31st ranked 2024 1.8 per game. An incredible turnaround and huge draft hits that should do this team wonders for the next 5+ years.

The current line on this one is TB -5.5 and O/U is 43.5. Man, would I absolutely love to see Captain Kirk go vintage nuclear and torch the Bucs depleted secondary for a massive game. Last year in 2 matchups against TB, Cousins averaged 392 yards and 4 TD’s a game against these guys in 2 huge wins.

I just don’t see that kind of energy this time around with him playing the worst ball of his career and without star receiver Drake London being able to make explosive big time plays. Expect a massive game from Bijan and potentially Kyle Pitts too who has been flying under the radar and easily having the best year since his rookie season.

Bijan should be a lock to hit his over in receiving yards in this one going up against the Bucs who allow the most receiving yards against running backs per game in the league. In week 1 Robinson exploded for 100 receiving yards against the Bucs. He should be Kirk’s 1st hot read against a blitz heavy TB scheme.

I’m pretty perplexed by Baker’s performance of late, but hopefully Evans back out there helps ease the load on the top 2 target options in Egbuka and Godwin and opens up the field more. The Bucs don’t allow many sacks so it’ll be a true battle in the trenches against the Falcons up-start edge rushers.

I’m expecting a big game from Bucky Irving as well here. With a fully healthy receiving core, the air attack should clear the box for Bucky to get loose for some big chunk plays through the air and on the ground. Atlanta allows 4.5 yards per carry, 24th in the league.

The O/U is juicy in this one being super low at 43.5. It’s tempting to take the over, but with both offenses struggling as of late, it could be a huge trap. The combined past 3 game average scoring for both teams is just 34.7 PPG.

If Drake London were playing in this one I would happily take Falcons to cover against a TB team that is on the decline and given Captain Kirk’s obliterations of the Bucs in the past. Without him though, the top 2 receivers for ATL tonight are not even receivers.

It’s do it all RB Bijan and TE Kyle Pitts. Their top receiver tonight is Darnell Mooney who is just averaging 2 catches a game on the year. I don’t know if Mike Evans will be back at full health yet, and Chris Godwin hasn’t looked quite like his former self since he came back from injury, but something has got to give in a must-win game for the Bucs.

The deciding factor might just be the potential loss of the Falcons top pass rushers tonight Brandon Dorlus and Jalon Walker who are both dealing with injuries and are game-time decisions. I think the Bucs offense returns to the median in this one and puts up more points than they have the past month.

The absence of Drake London and their top pass rushers will prove to just be too much for the Falcons to overcome. El Chirpy is predicting a 28-20 win for the Bucs. I think this one will be a lot closer than the final score indicates. Be sure to follow along with Mr Chirp’s picks here!

Mr Chirp’s Picks:

Chirp fam, hope you liked this one today. Reply to this email and let me know what sports topics you want me to cover next. Also send me your picks and follow along on Action to never miss any of my picks and roast all my L’s.

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-Mr Chirp